Yes to war devastation, increasing poverty and pollution. No to revolution. Let me explain, taking the timeframe of my novel, i.e. what the world is likely to look like 200 years from now.
First, we can expect a level field world-wide in terms of economic growth and scientific progress. That is: most major countries in the world - from the US to China - will be at more or less the same level technically and economically. And in social terms, it will be the same too. Differences that we now perceive as coming from countries still attached to a Communist ideology will have disappeared. As I posited in Forever Young, the world will most certainly be divided between the Haves and Have-Nots, the One Percent and the 99 Percent.
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Moreover conservative forces emanating from the ultra rich are taking over governments everywhere and shaping policy. The present Great Recession which has purely financial roots confirms this and it is no surprise that the recession in Europe and the troubles of the Euro are due to a concerted attack against government debt sovereignty, supported by American rating agencies like Moody's etc. Meanwhile the Occupy Wall Street movement has petered out...It may revive, indeed I expect it to revive again and again, but the forces in place are so strong that it will never be able to take over. At least, it doesn't look likely over the next two hundred years...
In a world that is economically and scientifically a "level field", where political power is firmly in the hands of the One Percent, what other forces may one expect to rise? Cultural forces driven by language, arts and religion but certainly not leading to a revolution in the French sense of a 1789-like upheaval of the classes in society. The One Percent will see to it that this doesn't happen.
However, we should expect a series of small, localized cultural rebellions supported by a common language, traditions and religion. We already have many examples of this in the European Union which is economically a "level field" of the kind I describe here: we have the basques, the bretons, the Catalans, the Lombards, the Flemish etc. They all rise together and demand recognition from European society at large.
Will the EU or the nations hosting them (France, Italy, Spain, Belgium) give in to them? Not likely.
These are no more than bubbles in a boiling pot.
The question is how many "boiling pots" shall we be left with once the world is economically and scientifically level? I think we'll have just two big pots: an Eastern one dominated by China, Japan and India and a Western one pulling together North America and Europe, Russia and Turkey included. One may also expect the Western "pot" to draw in Latin America which shares its culture with several Southern European countries (mostly Spain and Portugal, but also Italy and Germany).
What we are likely to have then are two loose geo-political congregations of like-minded countries that will act and vote together as a group at the United Nations (which I don't expect to disappear), in short, the Eastern vs. the Western.
This still leaves a lot of countries on the border between the two or lost in far-flung uncertain positions that may be difficult to hold, like Australia, New Zealand and South Africa.
However, the biggest, unresolved borderline bunch of countries will be in the Middle East and Africa. And they are likely to be both the scene and the cause of numerous conflicts as the Eastern and Western congregations try to pull them in.
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| Protest in Kenya - painting by Claude |
On the other hand, tensions are likely to be sharpened by the very nature of Islam, the major religion in those areas. The Moslems, unlike Christians, do not have church systems based on a hierarchical model and they are further divided among themselves between Shiites and Sunnites (not to mention Alawites etc): these are cultural forces that tear at the very fabric of their society. Additional reasons to expect wars to continue to erupt in the Middle East and Africa.
Finally, with Climate Change and the warming of the planet, the Arctic will emerge as a major bone of contention between the US and in future China. For the moment, the group of countries bordering the Arctic are discussing in the so-called Arctic Council how to share the resources of this new continent and China is not yet part of the discussion. But it has just been invited as an "observer nation" (the others that were invited are India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Italy on the European side - curiously leaving out France and Germany, no doubt a temporary oversight).
In short, if you want to get a glimpse of the future, look closely at what will happen in the Arctic, it is our last frontier, at least on this planet! And if you're curious, you'll find more about our future world in my serial novel 2213:Forever Young, Part One and Two already published. Be warned: this is not serious stuff like this article, it's fiction and full of unexpected twists and turns...
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| Ebook and paperback on Amazon |
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| Ebook and paperback on Amazon |
Related articles:
Time to Abolish Left vs. Right(readersupportednews.org)
Is revolution coming to the U.S.?(salon.com)
The Koch Brothers and the Right Wing's Media Conspiracy(readersupportednews.org)
Muslims to Tea Party: Welcome to our world(globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com)
The Poorest Rich Country(veteranstoday.com)
Armed Revolution: Nearly One-Third Of Voters Say It Might Be Needed(freedomoutpost.com)
Brics And A Potentially Progressive Semiperiphery by Chris Chase-Dunn(zcommunications.org)
Nigel Farage: Europe on the brink of 'wholesale, violent revolution'(talesfromthelou.wordpress.com)
Save Europe: Split the Euro(bloomberg.com)
Comments
Also, I think it's time to begin using terminology correctly. I am not rich and not a conservative. I am not rich, but a liberal in the classic sense of the word. I am pro-liberty. The Democrats/Progressives/Leftist in America want to dictate every aspect of my life: What to eat. What to drive. What to believe. Americans are assaulted daily with their points of view all based, of course, on what's best for us.
So, yes, there is a revolution coming in America. It doesn't need the support of the majority (although the majority of Americans are conservative - every extant survey proves this). Unfortunately, our electoral choices have been liberal and liberal-lite. All we need is a third of the population to rise up in arms and fight once again for liberty and we're fast approaching this.
As for the rest of the world, yes China is growing its economy, but even now the signs of strain are beginning to show. Although suppressed in the "usual" media, riots are breaking out in major cities and the communists probably will clinch their fists once again to regain control. They have invested heavily in America and should have been watching the credit ratings more carefully. As America's economy implodes under the weight of progressive programs, the Chinese are going to find themselves holding a lot of worthless IOUs.
Yes, we are headed for "interesting times" aren't we?
Most important: that is an economic trend, not a political one.