Kim Jong-un has threatened a nuclear strike against the United States, a patently absurd threat (though he could reach Guam). But an aggression against South Korea isn't. He could easily do that anytime, today, tomorrow, now that, in retaliation for the sanctions imposed on his country by the United Nations on March 9, he's renounced the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.
The diplomatic corps has begun to evacuate Pyongyang: when diplomats leave, it usually signals the beginning of the end. North Korean authorities have warned some embassies (Russia, Indonesia...) they cannot ensure safety of diplomats beyond April 10. Come on! What kind of country is this that flouts all international conventions?
Fat little Kim is leading his country steadily into war: he views himself as a warlord, the very image of his grandfather, probably the only way for this confused young man to express who he is.
Because he's a nobody. A void - no doubt filled by the military around him. And the military, like all military anywhere, have only one thing in mind: make war.
Plus the fact that the country is once again on the verge of economic disaster. Hunger stalks the land, medical supplies are at an all time low. The UN sanctions meant as a response to Kim's display of missiles last month only exacerbated the situation. Dictatorships famously go to war to divert attention from domestic troubles.
Not clever. The sanctions are a miscalculation and as always, they hit the innocent population the most. Creating a perfect pretext for North Korean generals to go to war.
What's next? A war with South Korea is very much in the cards. This is terrible, History repeating itself. The United States has some 135,000 troops stationed in that part of the world (28,500 in South Korea, 50,000 in Japan). Plus all the military equipment, no need to go into that and we all know it is increasing it, in preparation of a North Korean attack. What chances has North Korea got?
None, obviously. But even if it's going to be a brief incursion into South Korea, a lot of innocents will no doubt unnecessarily die.Yet the war may have an unexpected beneficial effect: an improvement in US-China relations.
China appears increasingly irritated by its small yapping neighbor and would probably be happy if it were brought to heel. This could be an opening for American diplomacy, as pointed out by the New York Times. On the other hand, China is leery of seeing the US take too big a role in the area...Much depends on how the US plays its hand: can it keep it light and quick? If not, we're going to be in deep, deep trouble, all of us.
There, I've said it. That was my Daily Burnt Bread. What's your take on the situation? Do you think it might result in better US-China relations or do you think it will worsen them?
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